A demo project used to illustrate Dupless Forecast Forensics. Groundbreaking Dec 18 2025; 36-month plan to Dec 2028. Replace this description with your own project context.
Vertical dotted red line marking the calendar month we're reporting from. Everything left of it is history; everything right is forecast.
Planned finish (T)
a.k.a. Baseline finish · T-zero
The original committed completion date. The chart's x-axis is anchored on this — every other date is expressed as months before (T−n) or after (T+n) it.
On-plan line (y = 0)
a.k.a. Zero-variance line
The horizontal line where the forecast equals the plan. Above is late; below is early. A point on this line at x = T means "we'll finish exactly on schedule."
Forecast point (M_t)
a.k.a. Point forecast · Mean forecast
For any given month t, the single best estimate of the finish date as known at that month. One dot per month logged; their trajectory tells the story.
Cone of uncertainty
a.k.a. Forecast band · Confidence cone
The accent-tinted band around the forecast point — its top edge is optimistic, bottom is pessimistic. It narrows automatically as the project progresses (less remaining work = less uncertainty).
Optimistic edge
a.k.a. Best case · Lower bound · −1σ
Top of the cone. The earliest plausible finish given current information. Labeled "OPT" on the chart; column "Optimistic" in the ledger.
Pessimistic edge
a.k.a. Worst case · Upper bound · +1σ
Bottom of the cone. The latest plausible finish given current information. Labeled "PES" on the chart; column "Pessimistic" in the ledger.
Forecast end-date marker
a.k.a. Projected finish · ETA dot
Hollow dot = today on the trajectory; filled dot = where we currently project the finish to land. The horizontal accent band between them is today's cone of uncertainty projected onto the calendar.
Phase band
a.k.a. Story segment · Narrative phase
A horizontally-tinted slice of the chart corresponding to a project phase (Honeymoon, Reality check, Recovery, Shitshow). Click any phase swatch in the legend to focus its narrative.
Past hatch
a.k.a. Actuals · Realised range
Diagonal pin-stripe overlay on the cone before today. Marks the territory we've already lived through — these forecasts are now history, not predictions.
Variance (Δ mo)
a.k.a. Schedule slip · Delta · y-value
How many months late (+) or early (−) the forecast is, relative to planned finish. Y-axis is variance in months.
Confidence (% C)
a.k.a. Cone tightness · Maturity %
How "settled" the forecast is at month t. Starts low (early project, wide cone) and approaches 100% as t → T (late project, narrow cone). Equivalent to 1 − √(remaining/total).
▶Current forecast— click to collapse / expand
Forecast funnel
ZOOM
Optimistic · M_t (point forecast) · Pessimistic · Band narrows automatically based on Cone of Uncertainty: σ_t = σ₀·√(1−C_t), halfBand = k·σ_t · σ₀ = 3.00 · k=1.96 (95% CI)